Fewer but more competitive hotels – and higher profitability for the best operators. This development has begun and, in my assessment, will continue until around 2040.
Six key statements
- The shake-out is under way. Insolvencies in the German accommodation sector rose by 40.1 per cent in 2025. Weak businesses, unsustainable leases and outdated properties will leave the market by around 2030.
- The turning point comes around 2028. Spain is already in an upswing. In Germany it begins slowly in 2028 and 2029 and becomes clearly noticeable around 2030.
- Good hotel capacity is becoming scarce. In strong and regulated locations, competitive supply is shrinking: through conversion to other uses, stricter rules for holiday rentals and limited licences.
- Technology improves margins. AI, robotics and automation lower operating costs and raise productivity. In strong locations, a large part of that gain stays with the operator.
- The sustainable rent is what counts. It is not the highest rent that creates the highest property value, but the rent a capable operator can pay over the entire term. Hybrid models combining a minimum rent with a share of revenue are gaining importance.
- The building itself becomes a value driver. Energy, water, data and technical controllability increasingly determine the value of a hotel property.
The market cycle to 2040
Strong locations turn first, while weaker businesses remain under pressure until around 2030. Industry forecasts support this picture: a weak hotel year is expected in Europe for 2027, with growth returning in most markets from 2028 to 2030.
What this means for you
Strong properties gain value – if the lease and the operator are right
- A well-located property with a sustainable rent and a solid operator will be among the winners of the coming years.
- What matters is whether your contract, your operator and the technical condition of the property fit this market.
- Where there is an investment backlog, an expiring lease or a succession question, acting early is the better route: a sale, a new lease or a change of use is best arranged in an orderly way.
Secure locations before the upswing is priced into rents
- During the shake-out, good properties become available on terms that will not be on offer later.
- A minimum rent plus a share of revenue splits the risk fairly and makes contracts sustainable in the long term.
- Those who invest early in AI, automation and clean data secure a lasting cost advantage.
The entry window is open – but not for long
- In strong locations, the best window in my assessment lies before 2028; for properties with refurbishment or conversion potential, until around 2030.
- Both sides should always be examined: the property and the operator.
- In Spain, existing hotels with legally secure licences in regulated destinations can become a value factor in their own right.
The full market thesis
The full market thesis with all statements, the comparison of Germany and Spain, the counter-arguments, 16 test criteria and 33 sources.
Open the market thesis (PDF)Frequently asked questions
Is now a good time to sell a hotel?
That depends on the property. A strong asset with a sustainable rent can benefit from the coming upswing. Where there is an investment backlog, an expiring contract or an open succession question, an orderly sale today is often better than a sale later under time pressure. We assess this confidentially case by case.
When will the market pick up again?
In my assessment, around 2028 in strong locations. Spain is already in an upswing; in Germany it will become clearly noticeable around 2030. This is a base scenario, not a guarantee.
Which lease models will prevail?
Many owners still need a fixed, predictable rent. The guaranteed minimum rent with a share of revenue is likely to prevail increasingly, because it is predictable for owners and sustainable for operators.
What does this mean for your hotel?
We assess your situation – sale, lease, new operator or acquisition – and carry out the right route discreetly and off-market. Talk to us without obligation.
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The market thesis reflects the personal assessment of the author. Documented market data and all sources are in the PDF.